I _{have seen in decades passed how groups that seemed strong and capable of uniting or at least providing some sense of sanity for the common Somali folks came and went. We have had moments that gave us some sense of hope in the midst of turmoil and carnage. But those hopeful moments for our beloved country soon evaporated and we have seen things returning to the old ways of chaos and destitution for our good people. We sometimes ask ourselves “how did we get to this low point in our history?”.}

_{Why I am writing this column is to} inform my people on what got us to “this low point in our history”. What you will read here is a clear predictable trends that is used against us to continue chaos in Somalia and never allow it to be a viable state among nations of the world. Unless we understand this trends we will never be able to come out of this hell-hole our enemies have dug for us.

Some of you are asking by now “ what are this predictable trends?”. My fellow Somalis it is a proven strategy that is been used all over the world for centuries to weaken nations and conquer them. The enemies of Somalia started using it soon after the Ethiopia-Somalia war of 1977. The British and the Italians used it quite effectively in Somalia during colonization. Simply put, our enemies has been quite effective in dividing us and arming us against one another. It's been happening for a longtime and it is about time we start paying attention and inform ourselves on who is our friend and who is a foe. Not all friends are a sincere friends, and todays friends are tomorrows enemies. There are some friends who have long term objectives and you will never know until they reach their desired objectives, by then it is too late.

When a detective is investigating a murder, one of the questions he will ask himself to determine who killed the victim is “ who will benefit from the death of this person?”. So, lets put that questions to the case of Somalia. Who benefits or is interested in the permanent destruction of Somalia?. The list is long, but I will use the proactive ones in the Somali political sphere. Lets start with the case of Ethiopia and you will start to see a self reinforcing trend.

Ethiopia and Somalia went to war in 1977 over the Ogaden region. Ethiopia has over five million ethnic somali inhabitants in the Ogaden region, some of them are waging war against Ethiopia itself {ONLF}. Ethiopia is 50 percent muslim but always ruled by christian, so there is balance to be protected there by the christian rulers. Ethiopia is landlocked and planning to use port of Berbera for pennies on the dollar. Ethiopia is a loose nation by that I mean a collection of many tribes that can easily be fragmented. Ethiopia has a bitter enemy to north in the name of Eritrea and don't want a possible enemy in name of strong Somalia that has grievances against Ethiopia i.e Ogaden region.

By now we are starting to see Ethiopia is well happy with the current Somali situation as long as we keep fighting among ourselves Ethiopia will supply the weapons and if one group is getting the upper hand, he will be called a terrorist or Ethiopia will come in and crush him with its military. That is what they have been doing for the last 18 yrs. Arming all the groups with the same amount of weapons and if one is winning Ethiopia will decrease his share of arms and Ethiopia will increase his opponents share, so nobody wins and we will continue to be in a perpetual state of war.

The greatest strategist of the 21^st century in Africa is Meles Zenawi. He was a rebel leader at the age of 27 and after few years overthrew the strongest military in Africa at that time. Meles is no fool and his potential future enemy is strong Somali republic to his east. He will do anything to keep that from ever becoming a reality. He will use every trick in the book to defame and defeat any viable group that wants to rule Somalia. You should ask this the former president Abdiqassim Salat Hassan. He will tell you it was Ethiopia that was sending weapons to various warlords to oppose his government for apparently no reason. Abdiqassim is not an extremist religious radical. So, why was Ethiopia against his government?. Simple, Ethiopia is safeguarding its self interest. Ethiopian policy is “no Somalia Government”. Now you know the trends. Even the TFG of Sheikh Sharif will be a victim. Ethiopia will find some excuse to secretly arm some group against it. But for now Ethiopia is happy with the dual between Alshabaab, and Ahlu Sunna and TFG. If Ahlu Sunna and the government are winning Ethiopia is not going to allow anyone to dominate Somalia, so Ethiopia will secretly start arming some Somali group against the government and chaos will continue. Ethiopia is so good at and they have done it so many times what I have mentioned in this article that their strategies became a predictable trends.

Eritrea is another nightmare of the Somali people. Do you think Eritrea cares about the Somali people?. They could careless if the Somali race got wiped out of the planet earth. So, what is their business with meddling in Somali affairs?. Most people don't understand, but Eritrea is like another Ethiopia. Eritrea wants the war in Somalia to continue, preferably Ethiopian forces fighting in Somali soil against Alshabab. Their main objective is to weaken the Ethiopian military let it be inside Somalia or inside Ethiopia itself.

How can we reverse the tide against us the Somali people. how can we out smart this two countries and get them out of our business.

They will always have a Somali fool to do their dirty work in Somalia for them. As soon as we realize that our enemies always wants us divided, we will come together and defeat them. I pray the leaders of Alshabaab, Hisbul Islam, Ahlu Sunna and TFG get my point and realize that we can't afford another twenty years of war. It is not too late to bring the Somali people together and let us decide our future and not Ethiopia or Eritrea.

The other actor in the Somalia chaos is the international jihadist who were defeated in Iraq and afghanistan. This men are dangerous and have no place in the midst of the Somali people. We have already seen their influence in Somalia. Suicide bombings is not what Somali people are known for. They are a sore that once they blossom in a region it is very difficult to get rid of them. Because they brainwash the youth and spread their dangerous and unrealitisc ideology, and once they do that your own people will be just like them. That is what is currently going on in Pakistan and Afghanistan. If you remember during the invasion of Afghanistan by the soviet union a lot of international jihadist flocked to Afghanistan and amongst the jihadist was young Osama bin Laden. And you remember what he did 12 yrs later. The international Jihadist don't want Somalia to be a state that will abide by laws and norms. They want the chaos to continue, that is the kind of environment they flourish.

The Somali leaders need to admit to themselves that they will never win with force, because the enemies of Somalia will never allow that to happen. There is a lots of countries and groups that have fested interest in the continuations of the chaos in Somalia. They also need to stop the narrow minded clanish interest they always fight for and look at the bigger picture.

Returning to the case of Ethiopia. Ethiopia is currently arming and training Ahlu Sunna and forces loyal to the TFG. Ethiopia's cover story is Alshabab is a radical terrorist group. In reality Alshabab will not pose a serious threat to Ethiopia for at least 15 yrs because Somalia is such a destroyed country and international community will slap an arms embargo on Alshabab administration in Somalia anyway. But Ethiopia don't want to take the risk of any strong Somali government in the future. They rather have Somalia the way it is now and Ethiopia will make sure Somalia stays that way.

Ethiopia wants the complete disintegration of Somalia. Ethiopia prefers Somalia to be split into smaller states. The prove is, while Ethiopia is claiming to be helping the TFG on the other hand Ethiopia recognized the separatist region of Somaliland. As a matter of fact Ethiopia accepts Somaliland issued passport that is enough sign that Ethiopia recognises Somaliland as a sovereign country with its national flag. What a double standard. Ethiopia is currently in negotiation with

Hargeisa over planned use of port of Berbera by Ethiopians. Ethiopia is running away from Djibouti port because Djibouti recently raised taxation and fees on Ethiopian goods passing through Djiboutian ports. And both Djibouti and Somaliland are Somalis. That is how Ethiopia wants, divided people.

With Eritrea it is little bit different. Eritrea is scared of Ethiopia, they want to see weak Ethiopia. They want to weaken Ethiopia, but they don't want to do it themselves. That is why they support groups like Alshabab and Hisbul Islam. It is not because they care about the Somali people or they agree with the ideology of this two groups. For them it is all about Ethiopia. If Ethiopia goes east Eritrea will go west. Because Eritrea knows Ethiopia is always working for its interest. This things are self reinforcing.

How can we come out of this mess. You know the Somali people are the most hardheaded people I have ever met, and our leaders are the most hardheaded of . Unless our leaders understand this countries ulterior motives and what drives them to Somali politics we will be in this mess. We need our leaders to understand Ethiopia and Eritrea wants the permanent destruction of Somalia & its people.

They also need to stop getting military aid from this countries and stop fighting amongst themselves. Because fighting and chaos is what this two countries want. The only way we will come out of this mess is through the old Somali way of negotiation and understanding each other. The Somali people are brothers and it makes me sick to see one brother killing another brother and Tigreys are providing the arms to both of them.

Eng. Barre Burale.

 barreburale@yahoo.com